An article by Sun Ru in Zhongguo zhoubian distributed in its August 2014 posting took a close look at the US-Japan-South Korea triangle as it was strengthened by the three-way summit in March. It explained that the United States occupies the leading position in this triangle and has succeeded in temporarily getting the other two states to recommit to the triangular framework and support its rebalancing to Asia. Yet, the United States also has objectives versus North Korea and toward China, which have divisive implications for the triangle. In order to maintain its leadership role in the region it is adding to its military presence, including missile defense. No mention is made of China’s growing military role in the region, as if US moves are somehow unrelated to this and driven by an obsession with hegemonism. As for Japan, Abe is seen as slighting South Korea as he concentrated on Southeast Asia, even willfully antagonizing the South. But under US pressure and out of concern shared with the United States that bad South Korea-Japan relations could lead the South to tilt toward China, he stepped back in March. Nonetheless, Abe’s decisions not to make the correct choice on history and to arouse territorial tensions with South Korea are seen as limiting how far the triangle can go. One gets the impression that Abe has been a god-send for China, proving to be the most unpopular foreign leader for South Koreans and to have reminded them of history to the degree they are naturally suspicious of Japan’s interest in collective self-defense. The author concludes that it is hard to see a genuine triangle emerging. Although the United States has departed from its past posture of not getting entangled in Japan-South Korean disputes, its effort with Japan to enlist South Korea in containing China and in developing anti-missile capabilities conflict with the intentions of South Korea to avoid choosing between China and the United States—to serve its national interest through balanced development of the two bilateral relations. Analysis of the triangle leads to the conclusion that South Korea is in a difficult situation.

Read full article at www.theasanforum.org.