The year 2024 was a violent and dangerous year as far as disputes in the South China Sea (SCS) are concerned. This pattern of disputes will continue in 2025, with potential variations. The Philippines and China will remain constants in the dispute while U.S. involvement in the dispute will have two options under Donald Trump’s leadership: continued engagement or significant disengagement. The U.S. stance on this matter is crucial, as it affects the unfolding of the SCS conflict and the regional balance of power. Through the U.S.’s commitment to the dispute, one can gauge the second Trump administration’s alliance policy and strategy toward China, which, in turn, sheds some light on how to negotiate with the new U.S. administration and what regional countries should do to maintain peace and stability in the region.

Regardless of the direction of U.S. policy toward the disputes in the SCS and the broader region, South Korea must strengthen its role in regional strategic issues and move beyond its image as a passive actor in the regional strategic theater. To that end, Korea should invest more in maritime security cooperation with ASEAN countries, particularly the Philippines. This should be reflected in the Plan of Action (PoA) for the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP) with ASEAN, which will be drafted in 2025. Additionally, strategic cooperation among regional middle powers is recommended to reinforce the regional rules-based order and offset potential U.S. disengagement in the region.

This article is an English Summary of Asan Issue Brief (2025-06).

(‘2025년 필리핀, 중국, 미국의 남중국해 분쟁 전략과 미국의 동맹 및 지역 정책의 향배’)