Russia appears to be on the precipice of some important change with less optimism than before but more candor about uncertainties. The December Putin-Abe summit left more questions than answers, less a sense of success or failure than of doubt on what comes next. The Putin-Xi summit of late November was perfunctory, coming amid continued talk of a relationship that could soar to another level qualified by sober awareness that China and Russia differ on what that next level is and that high hopes for economic integration will not be realized. Meanwhile, Russians await a new president in Seoul, wishing for a sharp shift in policy toward North Korea while complaining of the THAAD deployment plans and sensing that poor ROK relations with neighbors may lead to an opportunity. Above all, anticipation is centered on the transition to the Trump presidency. This period from November to the middle of January has coincided with the lame duck transition in the United States, raising the consciousness of Russo-US relations to its highest level with Asia in the background. A clear divide is present between the mainstream who prioritize Sino-Russian ties without concern about any serious rift and critics of problems in this relationship who welcome more balance in Asian ties, but at times draw criticism as pro-West. The former group see Russia as succeeding in Asia, the latter see more failure.

Read full article at www.theasanforum.org.