Now that the spectacle of the Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong-un summit has been left for the history books, attention is turning immediately to the anticipated meeting a month or so later between the “dotard” and the “rocket man,” as Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un called each other in 2017. Among some, there is a heady air of anticipation that an on-again-off-again crisis of a quarter century will be settled, leaving no doubt about the merits of a Nobel Peace Prize award. Among most US experts on the Korean Peninsula or international relations specialists, however, there is an ominous feeling that the chances for failure outweigh those for success not just by a little, which might justify the risk, but by an overwhelming degree. To be sure, when the danger of war rises to a palpable level, there is a strong case for creative diplomacy. Yet, that is not a case for any sort of diplomacy at all or for flying in the face of those most experienced in analyzing the unique case of North Korea, as is happening in this situation.

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